aftermath

we dream, we create, we change, we love

Archive for February 9th, 2009

First 12/31 Pension Elephant

leave a comment »

Updated for new data on Feb 10

 

Although the first batch of 12/31 year-end financial statements were indicating pension funded status down in the 60s, I’ve been holding out for more data to come in, pointing to an expectation that the aggregate funded status for the entire S&P Composite 1500 universe will likely be a few ticks north of 80%. Today, the first of the elephants did a cannonball into our pool – Boeing. And as expected, the numbers are starting to come into focus.

Measured on the basis of 2007 pension assets, so far we now have about 3.89% of 12/31 filers among my universe (S&P Composite 1500 companies plus some extras, such as major insurance companies). That subset’s pension plans’ pension assets had an aggregate investment yield of -17%, eroding the aggregate funded status to 78% by the close of 2008, a drastic drop from 106% the previous year. For the full 12/31 subset, we still expect the funded status as of the close of 2008 to be slightly higher (as noted, a few ticks north of 80%).

On the basis of the pension plans’ accumulated benefit obligation, this subset dropped from a surplus of $8.8 billion at the end of 2007 to a deficit of $9.2 billion at the end of 2008, a loss of $18 billion in funded status. Pretty severe, considering we’re still looking at less than 4% of the full set.

(Remember, as I’ve previously disclaimed, posts such as this represent efforts of my favorite pastime. My formal work does not involve any of this, and none of it represents any position or comment that should in any way be attributed to my employer. Likewise, as always, it represents general personal impressions and should not be treated or used as formal professional advice.)

actuary cat feed subscribe to aftermath’s άctuary category

bumper sticker [www.internetbumperstickers.com] - actuary

Written by macheide

9 February 2009 at 10:25 pm

Posted in άctuary

bent back

leave a comment »

trading dreams with a colleague. mine, th one he enjoyed, was a romantic comedy. in his, he was to be tortured by bending his legs backward until his heels touched th back of his head, popping his hips out of their sockets, tearing at th muscles, and destroying his future as a long distance runner

even though i was th one experiencing his dream, he saw it happening and quickly surrendered, seeing th dream as a threat and hoping to spare himself th pain and damage. although his captors acknowledged his cooperation, th dream proceeded with me as planned, bending my legs back past th breaking point

it was suggested that we add th bird to th arrangement, rotating our dreams with hers

Bumper Sticker [www.internetbumperstickers.com/] - oneirra

Written by macheide

9 February 2009 at 4:04 am

Posted in oneirra