aftermath

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Too True To Be Good

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Today, you will give me a single grain of rice. Then, each day for thirty days you will give me double the rice you gave me the day before.

One Grain of Rice, a mathematical folktale by Demi

About 90 years ago, an Italian immigrant made essentially that same double-the-rice proposal to citizens of Boston: invest in my company, and I’ll double your money every 90 days. Do the math, people, do the damned math! Invest a million dollars in a scheme like that today, leave your money invested a mere five years, and you’ll be able to retire after that very brief period with upwards of one third of the current money supply of the entire U.S.!! Except . . . hmmmm, there seem to be more than two other financial idiots throwing into this scheme along with me, so how exactly are we going to be dividing up the country’s wealth between us all, pray do tell.

In the current re-run, the TV and the press and the politicians keep mislabeling the scheme’s investors as “victims.” The more accurate tag: “sucker.” And this time around, our scam artist’s biggest mistake was not turning his operation into a bank while he had the chance, in which case the U.S. taxpayer could have joined all the suckers by bailing him out.

So if these financial versions of chain letters are doomed to failure anywhere from as few as 15 to at most 30 iterations out into the future, might we not still see at least a near-term reality to them, temporarily without fraud, able to actually produce those get-rich-quick asset returns at first, simply not able to sustain it past some certain point, the exercise then becoming to know that point and get out before the scheme turns sour? No. That moment was back at the very initial point, at the origin of the idea.

Anything so good that it can’t be true will have its truth found out as not being all that good to begin with.

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Written by macheide

31 December 2008 at 10:30 am

Posted in whatev

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