aftermath

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Archive for November 20th, 2008

FYE Distribution

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*gleefully rubbing palms together* Doesn’t take much to get this hobbyist moving to the edge of his chair: 2008 annual statements for companies with fiscal years ending on or near September 30 are starting to come out!

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Written by macheide

20 November 2008 at 7:03 pm

Posted in άctuary

There IS A Floor Down There

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About two months ago, back before the Dow had even broken below 10k, in conversation with Kelly I pointed to the 5k range as being where I expected to start seeing a floor finally coming into view. A week or two later on one of the market TV programs, I heard the same range predicted by one solitary analyst, explained using much of the same thinking that had gone into my own off-the-cuff call. Almost all other analysts have hidden behind the curtains when the market has been dropping, then ventured back out to hope we’ve already seen the bottom when the market has taken a breather after getting ahead of itself. Since that one 5k call over a month ago, I’ve not heard anyone else setting any market target that low.

But I’ve sharpened my own amateur’s pencil enough to feel comfortable doing so. I think the high 5k range to be our most likely cellar floor, and I’m expecting to see that target holding us through late summer into early autumn next year. If panic over reaching sub-8k then sub-7k ranges seize investors, accelerating the decline and driving it deeper faster, then I expect the bounce to be sharp at first, although that then should level back out as we come back into current ranges, with 10k not again likely until 2010 at the earliest. If the market has already taken enough laxatives to clean out its tubes, so that it drops more lazily into early 2009 and never actually manages to make it below 6k, then I won’t be looking for recovery to be as fast or as sharp.

I’m pricing a deep recession lasting at 30-36 months into my projections, with extraordinary failures stretching from corporations to state governments and countries, together with bailouts and other government intervention that will make TARP look like a pup tent. Give us trouble beyond that or permit the government to keep shoveling uncertainty into the markets, and the lower 5k region or even sub-5k is not outside the realm of the possible. So if our freefall elevator gets down to the first floor and I see more than one basement below us, don’t be surprised to see me revise my numbers downward another floor or two. But I currently see nothing giving me any hope that the market won’t at least stick its head into the cellar I’m seeing down there.

Meanwhile, I’ll let the Warren Buffett’s of the world get their army boots through the elevator door early, while we’re still in freefall. Although I don’t think it’s time to turn into a sell-low investor, neither do I yet see opportunity for any major buying. For now, we remain 0% invested in equities, as we have been all this year.

bumper sticker [www.internetbumperstickers.com] - calls & puts

Written by macheide

20 November 2008 at 6:13 pm

Posted in calls & puts

Cat Trap

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After Blue gnaws himself free of the cat trap, it snags Kitty.

bumper sticker [www.internetbumperstickers.com] - monarda

Written by macheide

20 November 2008 at 3:21 pm

Posted in monarda

Tagged with

new depictions

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in a cozy dining hall like that of sundown, isolated, tucked back against a dense forest on a little ledge of a steep cliff in a narrow canyon

i am handed a collection of vivid photographs titled “new depictions.” scenes of th thick leaves, of the swirling clouds, of th quilt of red and gray rocks on th opposite side of th canyon, of th road several thousand feet down. each image is a moving metaphor of another world living within th one seen. i turn to show this to th tightknit group of people in th dining hall, but they are all preoccupied

i go outside with gerry to look at th rock patterns. i feel th vertigo from looking up across th deep chasm. gerry walks dangerously close to th edge of our ledge, then appears to slip and fall over. i am instantly and urgently frightened, but then almost immediately figure that he must have seen another ledge just below ours and had pretended to fall, just to play a trick on me. still feeling intense vertigo, i ease onto some slippery mud near th edge to check, finding out that i was correct – th second ledge was farther down than i expected, and he has to catch his breath from his jump, but he is safe. when several others emerge from th dining hall, i demonstrate to them how he had pretended to fall

Bumper Sticker [www.internetbumperstickers.com/] - oneirra

Written by macheide

20 November 2008 at 4:04 am

Posted in oneirra

Pension Contribution Forecasts

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Recently I’ve been seeing news articles projecting significant increases during 2008 for employer contributions to defined benefit pension plans, presumably by employers seeking to fill the hole left by huge net investment losses. Some even casually refer to 2008 contribution increases as if already fact rather than projections of rough estimates. And many foresee a pension contribution tsunami for 2009, in many wild-eyed instances nearing or even exceeding the entire amount of 2008’s net funded status loss, as if employer’s were going to be forced to make up the deficit out of pocket all in one single year.

Not. Just one hobbyist’s opinion, but I’ll believe it when I see it. And I strongly doubt I’ll see it. Very strongly doubt it. It simply won’t happen.

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Written by macheide

20 November 2008 at 3:03 am

Posted in άctuary