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Archive for November 6th, 2008

Nothingness of 5%

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This morning Bloomsberg TV chatted with a guest who ventured to say we’ve seen the market bottom. Freefall during mid-October scared off all those who had been calling the market bottom at a Dow of 12k, then at 11k, then at 10k, then maybe at 8k. But end October with something the whole rest of the month didn’t give us – two good up days – and stretch that a few more days over to Election Day, and those bottom-callers start braying again. What got me laughing about this one was what he was calling for now that we’ve seen the bottom: a 5-10% rally! Did he come to his interview this morning without watching yesterday’s market? Hey there mister stock person, the Dow dropped more than 5% yesterday alone. So you’re telling me we might be lucky enough to see stocks regain what they lost yesterday?!? Ooooo, let’s throw a “rally” party! Or better yet, let’s hold off until the market drops another 5% today so he can get us back to this morning with the low side or make it all the way back to yesterday morning the high side of what he calls a rally. Sheesh, where do they dig these people up from?

To this stock market, 5% ain’t no rally. At most it would be what they call a “dead cat bounce.” Except we still haven’t yet seen a floor hard enough to get that darn cat to go splat, much less bounce.

We’re still 0% invested in equities. And expecting to remain so through at least the end of this year.

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Written by macheide

6 November 2008 at 10:39 pm

Posted in calls & puts

Augh!!! Language Augmentation!

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“Obama Says His Becoming U.S. President Augurs Change” reads a Bloomberg headline, echoing one of the lines they had streaming on Bloomberg TV’s middle ticker tape. But although it would not be the least surprising to hear a word like “augur” from our eloquent presidential elect, this time I think they’re paraphrasing. The closest Obama has probably come recently to a context in which he might have used the word might have been in his Tuesday night speech in Chicago after winning the election, when at one point he pointed to auguries the world might see set to flight by America’s historic choice –

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

Mildly intriguing, but perhaps not completely coincidental, is a cousin of this word chosen by Bloomberg to represent how the symbolic sign or omen represented by the Obama choice is auspice of a broader, more significant future change: inauguration. An augury is the omen or sign; that omen or sign then augurs the future if one knows how to see and read its meaning and follows its direction; and one then inaugurates to celebrate the occasion of the auguring.

Here then: After 8 years of having a leader who couldn’t correctly pronounce “nuclear” and seemed to barely know the meaning of words beyond a fifth grade education level, the choice of Obama augurs a whole new engagement of all American people with the English language.

bumper sticker [] - whatev

Written by macheide

6 November 2008 at 9:49 pm

Posted in whatev

new to th team

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patty has been hired onto our technical team, largely due to th widely held impression that she had developed a unique approach to analysis for her own situation and finances that might well be portable to th broader context in which we worked

i had packed for a business trip i was to take through thursday, was planning to take th metroliner south out of manhattan late wednesday, but was holding off because i anticipated that patty would be back from an out-of-town orientation session and back to her desk, late in th day perhaps but hopefully still allowing me enough time for a face-to-face discussion of her methodology before catching a redeye train. it then occurred to me that i could save time and take an earlier train by phoning her as soon as she returned to her desk, instead of waiting until then to head over to th office to meet her and then having to go from there to th train station

i called to leave a message on her answering machine, just as she arrived back at her desk. i started to explain my brief upcoming absence, she completed my sentence stating “but will be back on friday” and indicated we could talk in more detail then. but did quickly sketch out how she worked through things, knowing what i needed for my trip without me having to ask

Bumper Sticker [] - oneirra

Written by macheide

6 November 2008 at 4:04 am

Posted in oneirra