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Archive for October 28th, 2008

On Calling a Bottom

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By Election Day, I think we’ll be happy if 12k would serve as reasonable target to climb back up to.

aftermath (5/20, after the Dow closed at 12828.68)

Well, here we finally are, just around the corner from Election Day. And yes, we would be happy, indeed quite surprised, if we could realistically set a 12k Dow as any reasonable target to climb back up to. At the time, just before Memorial Day, nobody else I was reading in the business press or watching on the business TV channels was breathing a word about the market even dipping into the 11s, much less far enough so to consider 12k a “happy” target to reach for.

I’ll tentatively set my expectation for the market within the next 18 months to steer downward toward 10k.

aftermath (5/27, after the Dow closed at 12548.35)

The biz press & TV were still talking like the Dow’s loitering in the 12s was but a temporary lull, with some prognosticators pointing up to 15k and even beyond. I had already given up on expecting to see 13k again, and felt that we were headed lower, far far lower. I anticipated seeing sub-10k levels by early 2009, but gave my prediction an 18-month horizon just to be on the safe side of the intermediate term of my expectations.

I expect us to be between 10k and 11k by September.

aftermath (7/24, after the Dow closed at 11349.28)

Technicians were scurrying around with their charts, all pointing to perceived bottoms, at that time none of them calling for numbers below 11k. I had already started talking about how long I thought it might take to find the sub-10k floor I still did not see anywhere near. I felt the market would continue drifting slowly down down down, but verbally did sketch out how equities might drop like a rock if and when other selling – such as that from hedge funds or 401(k) plans – might join the on-going pension plan selling in some sort of panic.

Before we reach the end of 2008, I expect the Dow to dip below 10k.

aftermath (9/4, after the Dow closed at 11188.23)

As close to the precipice as we stood at Labor Day, at that point there still were no TV or newspaper analysts daring to point further down. Whereas I couldn’t see anything that would give us any sustained climb, and only pointed vaguely at the next four months just to hedge my bets. I didn’t believe it would take very long to drop below 10k. Just, outside of the panic I’d briefly sketched out mid-summer, I didn’t expect it to fall quite so dramatically.

So then, where do we go from here?

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Written by macheide

28 October 2008 at 6:18 pm

Posted in calls & puts

Not Quite

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When attempting to gauge the pension funding damage done so far by the credit crisis and market turmoil, “not quite” getting it right can lead to analysis very badly wrong.

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Written by macheide

28 October 2008 at 5:17 pm

Posted in άctuary

Pack It In

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Written by macheide

28 October 2008 at 4:16 pm

Posted in pollster

In Play

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Play: Work that you enjoy doing for nothing.

Evan Esar

Herein otherwise known as my spreadsheet.

My spreadsheet is my borderless hook rug. My spreadsheet is my never-ending crossword puzzle. My spreadsheet is my endlessly moving painting, my poem without a final line. My spreadsheet is my mathematical jigsaw puzzle with an infinite supply of new pieces to fit into the emerging picture.

By saying “for nothing,” Esar no doubt refers to monetary compensation. I will work on my spreadsheet with no less the play even if it all comes to nothing. I used to make intricate sand castles that the tide washed away. I used to create snow sculptures that the wind and rain and sun melted down. Now I build a spreadsheet that someday may be lost to yet another computer crash. And I will smile at merely having had the time I’ve had with it.

bumper sticker [] - huckleberry

Written by macheide

28 October 2008 at 3:44 pm

Posted in huckleberry