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Archive for October 2nd, 2008

Disinterested Anyway

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Thanks, Bill. And seriously, with all due apologies. You confirmed what I already knew – that was why I would have only gone through you anyway – so the whole exercise was probably just a wasted gesture.

The only ones who could have been trusted are gone or going. The ones who methodologically destroyed the best there was in the business remain in command, as focused as ever on pursuing failure.

They will make it there faster without me.

Bumper Sticker [] - phone

Written by macheide

2 October 2008 at 1:20 pm

Posted in phone

Study In Gray

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bumper sticker [] - deskjob

Written by macheide

2 October 2008 at 12:25 pm

Posted in deskjob

Tiddly Up Tiddly Down

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Those Magnificent Men In Their Flying Machines.
They Go Up, Tiddly, Up, Up.
They Go Down, Tiddly, Down, Down.

Those Magnificent Men In Their Flying Machines

Comedy, Wall Street style. With the sense of direction provided by Congress. Fueled by knee-jerk Administration impulses to lock in that connection to Main Street before it gets away.

Unblinking through the entire circus act, pension funds continue their permanant asset reallocation, dumping equities at that $100 billion annual rate. Pass the bailout bill in any form whatsoever. The pension funds continue to drain their equity investments at the same pace, no faster, no slower. Give up on the bailout legislation, and the pension plans will behave no differently. Give us a depression rivaling the Great One, or just dip into a long painful recession, or bounce off the bailout and surprise us with immediate recovery; none of the possible economic scenarios will influence the pension funds. Take the price of oil back up toward $150 or drop it to half that; it won’t matter. Give us the hyperinflation that the bailout package guarantees, or save us from that hell by freezing the economy up too severely to bear the weight of the prices that should accompany the valueless mess we’re making of the dollar; whatever comes, pension plans will remain focused on that reallocation goal. In the long run, all those and other market forces will influence other market players, yes, eventually enough so perhaps to even balance out the pension fund activity during brief spells over the coming year. But nothing – not the bailout bill’s life or death, not anything that the Administration or Congress or anyone else can or cannot do – will influence the decision that has already been made by pension fund managers, an investment reallocation decision that will continue to steadily bring money to Wall Street’s sell side for at least another year.

Warren Buffett gives us a brief reference point, kinda like a landmark to point at while the boat continues drifting downstream on the flood. Whereas pension funds are exiting equities at a rate of $100 billion over the course of a year, the Oracle of Omaha can still ante up $3 billion on a single day to snatch up some stock on the cheap (although it would be mildly interesting to know what he sold in order to come up with the funds for his purchase). OK, now let’s see him and others with his financial endurance and intelligence do that tomorrow, and the next day, and the next. Because pension funds will still be there selling, Buffett or no Buffett.

Bailout or no bailout, Obama or McCain, miracle salvation of the economy or quick collapse, I’m still not ready to send any of our own funds back into any equity purchases, not just yet. And I still look for a Dow below 10k before the end of 2008. Pension funds may be just one of many investors, but they’re a force sufficiently huge and strong to have set the current rip currents sweeping us to low tide.

bumper sticker [] - calls & puts

Written by macheide

2 October 2008 at 11:54 am

Posted in calls & puts

icy deluge

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i exit th conference center about halfway up th steep road. th snow is packed well, good for sliding down, i could almost just take it down from here, but i’d rather take it all th way from th top, so i slip and slide my way up. by th time i get there, th accumulation is not snow, but rather a foot or more of dense slush, still packed well enough on th road for th many who are sliding down, but not what i had expected

i watch th others further down on th steep hill. there is nobody there whom i know. none of them know me. i stamp down sharply on th slush at th edge of th top of th hill. th slush breaks away and begins to rush down th hill, gathering more of th slush as it falls, until there is an avalanche of heavy slush racing down th hill, sweeping away everyone in its path. by th time th mass of icy water races past th conference center, it is twenty feet and climbing. several of th people on th hill manage to scramble to safety, but most are swept away, never to be seen again. word is sent out to other icy hills about th danger

i recall other hills on which i’ve slid down snowy slopes. i wander over to a field near a garage, where artificial snow has been blown around for people to use for play. several loose groups are halfheartedly trying to have snowball fights, but th artificial stuff is more like flakes of cotton. i manage to pack some together enough to work up small barrage against both sides

Bumper Sticker [] - oneirra

Written by macheide

2 October 2008 at 4:04 am

Posted in oneirra