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Muddy Feet

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I’m not a day trader, nor will I ever be. And except in the case of very obvious immediate influences, like 9/11 or like when the Fed switches policy, I’m not inclined to call daily market moves. My semi-hard 13k ceiling and my very soft 12.5k floor are medium-term marks, both currently extending through this summer.

And I’ll set some longer-term targets shortly. For instance, given the fuel that pension fund divestments give to the short side of the market and given how long and how definite that fuel supply is, I’ll tentatively set my expectation for the market within the next 18 months to steer downward toward 10k.

That said, I’ll hazard a guess – pure guess, pretty much – that tomorrow will not be a very good day to be in the market. Since I characterize my “soft floor” as being like the seeming lack of floor beneath a swimming hole, where one eventually floats on the thick mud without actually reaching rock, let’s just say I expect our feet to be getting rather muddy this week, beginning tomorrow, following today’s post-Memorial Day testing to either side of balance.

bumper sticker [] - calls & puts

Written by macheide

27 May 2008 at 12:06 pm

Posted in calls & puts


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